A Second Look at Tau Unit Efficiency: Evaluating Seeker Missiles Against Other Options.

As they enter their third sphere of expansion, the Tau Empire has an uphill battle ahead of them. With the introduction of flyers, and the loss of target locks on infantry models, there are now more targets and less ability to allocate the necessary firepower to the highest priority threats. Consequently, there needs to be an evaluation of which weapons on which units are strongest against which types of targets. This article will examine the proposal that seeker missiles be purchased and allocated against flyers, and determine whether they are a worthwhile weapon purchase. This will be determined by determining the glance and wound percentages for the available anti vehicle weapons and examining where seeker missiles fall along the scale. As this is a new edition, perhaps it is time to renew this discussion.

In 5^th edition Warhammer 40k, the seeker missile was considered to be an inefficient weapon upgrade. It required two rolls to hit, the typical Markerlight-bearer to be stationary, and was only strength 8. Consequently, the more tactically-minded voices in the 40k community suggested investing the points in target locks on units such as Broadsides and Crisis suits in order to accomplish the same results the 1-shot missile attempted to perform. With standard cover saves as high as they were, and Markerlights desperately needed to strip cover saves and improve ballistic skill, there was no room for using one to trigger a missile that might miss.

A new edition has arrived, along with a host of changes. In addition to cover being reduced, heavy weapons being able to hit using snap fire, a new mechanic for glancing hits, the Tau also lost their target locks on infantry models. The average Tau army, utilizing 3x2 Crisis suits and 3x2 Broadsides, had their available target opportunities per turn cut in half. The other introduction is the flyer. They are fast, dangerous, and can only be hit with snap fired or anti-aircraft weapons. The Tau Empire is one of the many armies that currently have no anti-aircraft weapons. Consequently, snap fire is the only option outside of allies. Because of the shift in the new rules, new firepower options need to be evaluated. While allies can solve many matchup problems a Tau build may have, they are outside the scope of this article.

The methodology used to calculate the results in the below table is based on minimum unit size. While doubling or tripling the number of models in a unit can influence the statistical outcome, introducing that factor would require another axis evaluating cost against effectiveness. To avoid this complication, I am measuring the statistical likelihood of achieving a glance or wound with a minimum sized unit, ignoring mitigating factors such as line of sight or cover saves. Additionally, all weapons were calculated at maximum range with the default ballistic skill of the unit bearing the weapon. To give perspective on weapon effectiveness, the calculations for effectiveness against non-flyer vehicles are included as well. The most effective weapon against each armor value type is bolded for the reader’s convenience.  

Table 1: Tau Unit Effectiveness versus Non-Flyer Armor Values

	AV 10	AV 11	AV 12	AV 13	AV 14
Crisis suit x1 Missile Launcher	0.5	0.38	0.25	0.13	--
Crisis suit x2 Missile Launcher	0.62	0.47	0.31	0.16	--
X6 Fire Warriors	0.32	0.16	--	--	--
X1 Krootox	0.33	0.25	0.16	0.08	--
Piranha with Fusion Blaster	0.41	0.33	0.25	0.17	0.06
X4 Pathfinders with Seeker Missile	0.65	0.52	0.39	0.26	0.09
Broadside with 2 Railguns	0.62	0.62	0.62	0.50	0.38
Hammerhead with Railgun	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.44	0.33

Table 2: Tau Unit Effectiveness versus Flyer Values

	AV 10	AV 11	AV 12
Crisis suit x1 Missile Launcher	0.20	0.15	0.10
Crisis suit x2 Missile Launcher	0.34	0.25	0.17
X6 Fire Warriors	0.22	0.11	--
X1 Krootox	0.11	0.08	0.05
Piranha with Fusion Blaster	0.14	0.11	0.08
X4 Pathfinders with Seeker Missile	0.41	0.33	0.25
Broadside with 2 Railguns	0.25	0.25	0.25
Hammerhead with Railgun	0.14	0.14	0.14

Looking at the above, some traditional truths are validated and some surprising suggestions emerge. If an enemy vehicle is AV11 or higher the Broadside is the most efficient unit to target it. Also, dual Missile Pod Crisis suits put up some solid numbers against light armor. But a surprising contender is most efficient at damaging AV10. Against non-flyers, Seeker Missiles are more successful against AV10 than Broadsides. Krootox also see some surprising numbers, only running slightly behind single Missile Pod suits at the 24.1-36 inch range. Against higher armor values, Hammerheads and Broadsides are the only sensible choices to take out targets. The results change significantly on the flyer table. Against AV10 and AV11 flyers, due to the snap fire restrictions, Seeker Missiles come out on top. The numbers for the other units dropped half or more, while seekers only lost roughly a third of their efficiency. However, against higher armor values the highest efficiency goes back to the traditional king. Against AV12 flyers the Broadside ties due to the greater strength of the Railgun compared to the Seeker Missile.

                Within the context of the new rule set, the inclusion of several Seeker Missiles into the Tau Cadre appears to be a reasonable decision. With the significantly larger movement range of all vehicles, and of fast skimmer vehicles in particular, Tau have plenty of options to squeeze them in. Additionally, Seeker Missiles are not dependent on the vehicle rules for firing.  As long as the vehicle is not destroyed, the missiles can be launched remotely by the Markerlight user. Particularly now that heavy weapons can snap fire on the move, there is no reason not to use your Markerlights on flyers and line up next turn’s more traditional light-up. Building a Tau cadre with role-emphasis in mind, the evidence suggests that Seeker Missiles should be brought to down the inevitable flyers, allowing your other units to focus on other targets and enjoy a greater probability of success. Remember, accuracy is good and the Tau are all for “Greater Good."

~Shas'el Mike

"I'm the soulweeper..."